Tasmania's population change

This page has been updated with the latest ABS projections (released in 2008) 

Box 5a: Tasmania's Experience of Migration
This graph shows net interstate migration (the purple columns) and net overseas migration (the orange columns), and the outcome of the difference between these two - net migration (the blue line). Clearly, of the two, interstate migration has been Ta...[more]

Box 5b: Interstate Arrivals and Departures
While Tasmanian's interstate leavers typically outnumber arrivals, resulting in net interstate loss, the flows in each direction have a significant (positive) impact on tasmania's economy....[more]

Box 5c: Tasmania's migrants by age
Tasmania tends to lose younger migrants and gain older ones. As the accompanying graph for interstate migration shows, this pattern occurs even when net migration is strongly positive, as occurred during the 2003-2004 period when the state received a...[more]

Box 6: Tasmania's age-sex structure
A population's age-sex structure is the number and/or proportion of the population to be found in each age-sex group. If each population could be got together for the day and lined up in their age groups - females at one end, males at the other, a p...[more]

Box 7: Population Projections
The accompanying graph shows projected growth in Tasmania's population (according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2008 'high' and 'medium' variant assumptions)....[more]

Box 8: How are we going?
The accompanying graph shows that Tasmania's 'estimated resident population' is currently tracking slightly above the ABS high (Series A) projections...[more]

Box 9a: Structural Ageing (Numbers)
The accompanying graph shows projected change by age (numbers) between 2008 and 2018, and 2008 and 2028, according to the ABS Series B assumptions....[more]

Box 9b: Structural Ageing (percentage change)
For some purposes it is more important to know percentage change in each age group. This graph uses the same data as in Box 9a but expresses change as a percentage of the number in each age group now....[more]

Box 10: Pre- and Early Primary School Age Groups
Declining numbers of births over the past decade, along with the net migration loss of young adults in the key family formation age groups (18-38 years), is resulting in decline in the numbers of pre- and early primary school age children...[more]

Box 11: Senior primary and high school population
Numbers at 10-14 and 15-19 years are similarly projected to continue their overall downward trend, but with the small wave generated by the recent small increase in births driving a short term increase between 2016 and 2024....[more]

Box 12:University and early working age population
While numbers at 20-24 and 25-29 years have been declining for some years, the Series B projections indicate a general steadying off in this trend....[more]

Box 13: Labour Market Entrants to Exits
As the population age structure changes from young to old, so too does the ratio of people at the prime labour market entrant ages (e.g. 15-24 years)to those approaching retriement age (e.g. 55-64 years)....[more]

Box 14: Labour Market Entry/Exit Ratios
The accompanying graph shows the outcome of the changing numbers of labour market entrants to exits depicted in Box 13 above; here we see the ratio of the two, which is currently just on 1.0 (or 10 entrants for every 10 exits), having fallen from 2 in 1971....[more]

Box 15: The Working Age Population
The working age population is typically taken to be the population aged 15-64 years, even though relatively few people at the lower and upper bounds of this age group are - these days - actually in the labour force....[more]

Box 16a: Numerical Ageing (annual increment)
The accompanying figure illustrates 'numerical ageing' - the absolute increase in the number of elderly - shown here in terms of the annual increment at age 65+. These numbers are now rising rapidly....[more]

Box 16b: Numerical Ageing (Absolute Increase)
While the annual increment in numbers aged 65+ years (Box 16a) is going to be nothing short of astounding, the absolute increase also needs to be kept in mind....[more]

Box 17: Tasmania's Seniors
Conventionally, the 'seniors' population is comprised of those aged 65 years and over. In Tasmania, as elsewhere, this population will undergo enormous growth over the next several decades, both numerically and as a proportion of the total population...[more]